Skip to content Skip to navigation

Hoover Poll Shows Trump Facing Historic Defeat in California

Jennifer Mayfield
Nov 1 2016

Hoover Institution Golden State Poll

With the presidential election only a week away, a new Hoover Institution survey shows Hillary Clinton with a commanding lead over Donald Trump in California.

Hoover Institution’s Golden State poll, administered by the survey research firm YouGov and designed in conjunction with Stanford University’s Bill Lane Center for the American West, gives Clinton a 54 to 30 percent lead.

“The question with Donald Trump isn’t whether he loses in California, it’s how low does he go,” said Hoover Institution research fellow Bill Whalen. “If he finishes below 35 percent that puts Republicans down the ticket in competitive congressional races in serious jeopardy.”

Should that prove true on Election Day, it would be the poorest showing for a Republican in California in the post-Reagan era, even worse than the 1992 election when Ross Perot siphoned off voters from George H. W. Bush and left the Republican nominee with just 33 percent of the vote.

Conducted between Oct. 4 and 14, the survey’s sample is 1,250 likely voters in the upcoming general election in California. The full results of the survey, which has a margin of error of +/-3.28 percent for the full weighted sample, can be found at the Hoover Institution.

 

Recent Center News

Sep 14 2018 | Out West student blog
“With the general election approaching,” writes the Center’s summer research fellow Benek Robertson, “I hoped to highlight specific policy areas that could influence the general election and California politics for years to come.”
Sep 13 2018 | Center News
Beyond her accomplishments at Water in the West and Stanford, Newsha Ajami has also shown an intense dedication to developing and mentoring the generation of scientists, engineers, and policymakers following in her footsteps.
Sep 12 2018 | Out West student blog
“I’ve come to recognize the value of rephotography as tool to analyze environmental change through time,” writes San Francisco Esturary Institute intern Nick Mascarello.