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Hoover Poll Shows Trump Facing Historic Defeat in California

Jennifer Mayfield
Nov 1 2016

Hoover Institution Golden State Poll

With the presidential election only a week away, a new Hoover Institution survey shows Hillary Clinton with a commanding lead over Donald Trump in California.

Hoover Institution’s Golden State poll, administered by the survey research firm YouGov and designed in conjunction with Stanford University’s Bill Lane Center for the American West, gives Clinton a 54 to 30 percent lead.

“The question with Donald Trump isn’t whether he loses in California, it’s how low does he go,” said Hoover Institution research fellow Bill Whalen. “If he finishes below 35 percent that puts Republicans down the ticket in competitive congressional races in serious jeopardy.”

Should that prove true on Election Day, it would be the poorest showing for a Republican in California in the post-Reagan era, even worse than the 1992 election when Ross Perot siphoned off voters from George H. W. Bush and left the Republican nominee with just 33 percent of the vote.

Conducted between Oct. 4 and 14, the survey’s sample is 1,250 likely voters in the upcoming general election in California. The full results of the survey, which has a margin of error of +/-3.28 percent for the full weighted sample, can be found at the Hoover Institution.